Terminal Case

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Lightning Rod
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Terminal Case

Post by Lightning Rod » March 14th, 2006, 4:37 pm

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Terminal Case
for release The Ides of March 2006
Washington D.C.


According to the World Health Organization, there have been 97 deaths attributed to avian flu worldwide over the past four years.

To refer to this as a human pandemic is a bit like Chicken Little announcing that the sky is falling. It's just not borne out by the facts, but the news media are parroting it anyway. I think it's a wild goose chase.

Considering that over a hundred thousand people die every year in this country alone from accidents and that four times the number of Americans die each year by falling from ladders than have died in four years worldwide from the avian flu, it strikes me as hyper-vigilant to call it a pandemic. We're not talking about The Black Death here.

We have been following the progress of the H5N1 avian flu virus for several years now. We've followed it from Southeast Asia to Russia to Eastern Europe and now to England. Short of requiring all migratory birds to carry passports and go through customs, there is not much we can do to check the spread of the virus in birds.

But before we do a pre-emtive nuclear strike on the Canary Islands or before you begin looking askance at your parakeet, consider what it would require for the avian flu to be a serious problem for humans. First, the virus would need to mutate to a form that would be transmissible from birds to humans. This may have already happened in some places. The greatest number of human cases have occurred among people with direct contact with birds. Birds have also transmitted the virus to pigs. But in these cases the virus has not shown that it is likely to transmit from human to human. So, that would require another mutation.

Viruses are in the business of mutation. It's their job to adapt to a host. Certainly it could happen. But there are millions of viruses out there hiding in the nooks and crannies of every living thing. Any one of them could take a replicative left turn and mutate into the disease from hell. We don't know when that might happen.

It is in fashion these days to pander to the fears and insecurities of the public. Politicians do it, and advertisers and preachers. If George Bush and Dick Cheney can make you believe that there are wild-eyed, satanic, well armed and organized terrorists out there just waiting to knock more of our sky-scrapers down and that the only reason it hasn't happened again is because they are so tough and mean that those ole terrorists know better than to fuck with them, if they can convince you of that, then they win the fear vote. It's just the same as Pat Robertson knows that if he can make you believe that the fires of hell are licking at your toes, your dollars will be in the collection plate on Sunday.

If a drug company can convince you that you are just a heartbeat away from having no heartbeat at all because of some formerly unknown malady which was discovered in a study that they paid for, they can sell you their new elixir for the rest of your natural life. Fear sells almost as good as sex. If you combine the two, it's really dynamite. Whoever came up with the idea of selling a pill to prevent the fear of not being able to get an erection was a marketing genius.

The Poet's Eye saw the first robin of Spring today. It didn't scare me at all.



Terminal Case

you could die en utero
or maybe strangle during birth
you could suffer crib death
be tickled and die of mirth
you could be hit by a car or
a truck or a bus you could be
bombed by a terrorist it could
happen to any of us. you could
be stalked by a madman and rendered
the sum of your pieces or drop into
a frozen river and lose your homeostesis
or even be infected with tropical diseases
or parasites or cancers might secret in
your creases but this is all i'm saying
my fundamental thesis is:

somethin's gonna gitcha
--Lightning Rod

listen to it here: Terminal Case
"These words don't make me a poet, these Eyes make me a poet."

The Poet's Eye

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stilltrucking
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Post by stilltrucking » March 15th, 2006, 8:56 am

Sounds good Clay.

But it sure has killed a lot of birds. I think I am going to invest all my money in KFC stock.

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Ann Bingham
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Post by Ann Bingham » March 15th, 2006, 9:54 am

To each his own I suppose. But as I see it this could be a ligitimate fear, not that I'm coming unglued about it or anything. I personally feel it would be ignorance to turn a blind eye to the 'probability' of an outbreak.

Yes some people over react to 'sickness', but to the rest of the 'common reasoning' people it's something worth keeping an eye on. Yes mutations do occur, and this virus may well be mutating. It could take years, months, or days for it to become the epidimic the CDC fear it to become and I think it wise to keep an open mind. I'm not saying be a Chicken Little and lose our heads. No the sky is not falling, but shouldn't we at least keep an eye and ear open to the possibilities.

Over this past winter, my son and boyfriend have each had a bout with the flu. Not pretty- vomiting, diareah, aches pains, fever, the whole nine yards. One of my daughters had a very mild case, just fever and the usual caughing, and sniffling. My oldest and myself have been explosed but thus far neither of us have become ill. The flu mutates each year, and I question the need for a vacine. Perhaps there are humans out there who produce a natual defense to this epidimic that affects thousands each year. This could be true of the bird flu as well. Only time will tell.

Guess that's all for now. Be well, and no I do not live in fear, but i do watch and listen. I think it wise for all to do the same.

Love lots

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Post by Lightning Rod » March 15th, 2006, 10:11 am

truck, my research tells me that it's ok to eat crow if it's well cooked
what you don't want to do is what the girl in the picture is doing--kiss crow

Ann, it sounds like you have a good sensible grip on this subject--don't get all aflutter but keep a bird's eye on the situation.
"These words don't make me a poet, these Eyes make me a poet."

The Poet's Eye

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STUPID BOB
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Post by STUPID BOB » March 15th, 2006, 11:31 am

The actual number is 100 according to the WHO. This number is expected to rise after the completion of tests this week on another expected case.

You failed to mention (even after I pointed it out) that the bug has been found in domestic cats and marmosets and found to be the agent that killed them.

WHO's numbers per is now revised to 3 out of 4 cases result in death. Add that up and the number of confirmed cases is several hundred more than the current body count you use as a baseline.

Unlike the Ebola virus, this one incubates slowly by comparison. It indeed does have the ability to malinger unseen.

I contracted a viral pnuemonia that had my attending physician counsel my wife to prepare for the worst. I was in hospital nearly a month. I fooled him and survived, but one of the doctors who worked in the hospital I was in contracted the same strain and was placed in an iron lung. He survived, but he'll never be the same. Over half the cases like ours died. I also will carry a similar burden the rest of my life. My energy level is less than half what it used to be. I wish I could point to my age as the only cause of that . . . I was the oldest survivor of this bug and my doc told me he wanted my genes. So, please refrain from telling me about your take on Fear Factor's. I don't fear bugs, but when I'm in the cluthches of one, I try to do all I can to survive it.

I am not one for letting a little thing like "facts" to coerce me into reckless action. The facts do seem to lean toward a basis point: The little bug IS doing its little jumps with a high degree of success. It IS killing thousands of birds, but hey we gots kazillions of 'em, right?

This isn't like BIG PHARM and BIG GOV setting you up for a BIG FEAR. The WHO isn't wailing klaxons and buying yellow paint. They are reporting. That is what they're supposed to do. They do it with better crapfiltration than most other agencies and have good NOGOV filters.

I know Mother Nature is a competent killer and nurturer. She can nurture the little bugs, kill us and still have time left over to produce for our amazement "extinct" animals, undiscovered "NEW" lifeforms and evolve us to her heart's content. I say let her scrub the land free if she so desires and give free rein to the bugs (the top of the food chain) if that's her nature. I ain't gonna try ta stop her. I do wish her aim was more towards politicians, religious leaders and lawyers . . .
Carpe Delirium

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Post by Lightning Rod » March 15th, 2006, 12:10 pm

ah, SB

you won't let me get away with a thing, will you? :lol:

on second thought, maybe we could use a good pandemic
you know, weed out the culls, strengthen the species
if we had half as many mouths to feed
Peak Oil wouldn't happen for years
"These words don't make me a poet, these Eyes make me a poet."

The Poet's Eye

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Ann Bingham
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Post by Ann Bingham » March 15th, 2006, 12:14 pm

Amen to that Bob. :twisted:

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Post by Doreen Peri » March 15th, 2006, 12:26 pm

Hey, Stupid Bob.... I'm so glad you survived. Just wanted to let you know that. :D

------

LR - the govt is blowing it all outa proportion? y'think? Well, you can say everything is a govt plot to scare us if ya want. Problem with bird flu, though, is there's no way to tweet it. :)

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Post by Dave The Dov » March 15th, 2006, 3:33 pm

Scare the people that's their power.
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Last edited by Dave The Dov on March 19th, 2009, 5:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by Lightning Rod » March 15th, 2006, 6:07 pm

the latest RodCast includes an audio version of this column

also a performance by Hester Prynne

One Flu Over the Cuckoo's Nest

http://www.studioeight.tv/musicpost/LR/RodCast6.mp3
"These words don't make me a poet, these Eyes make me a poet."

The Poet's Eye

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Post by firsty » March 17th, 2006, 5:04 pm

when i was kid i got bit by mosquitoes all the time and ran naked thru fields of corn and grass. now, my kids will get west nile and lyme disease.

it's these fucking aliens bringing in all these damn diseases, muddling up our music and having sex with our women. next thing you know a million mexicans will ride in on the backs of killer bees and 10 billion chinese soldiers will march over our igloos and then we'll all be fucked and fucked good, and nobody will care that some chick caught bird flu by kissing a bird in her bathing suit.
and knowing i'm so eager to fight cant make letting me in any easier.

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Post by stilltrucking » March 23rd, 2006, 9:35 am

The 1918 "Spanish Flu" killed more people than the Black Plague. It was an avian flu too. But it was an H1 not a H5 strain like the current version, whatever that means. It seems as if we have dodged the bullet this time. But they say it is not a question of "if" a new pandemic strikes, it is a question of "when". I am sure that we will be ready. Our government is so far sighted we have nothing to worry about.

Studies Suggest Avian Flu Pandemic Isn't Imminent


By NICHOLAS WADE
Published: March 23, 2006


Two groups of researchers, in Japan and in Holland, say they have discovered why the avian flu virus is rarely if ever transmitted from one person to another.

The reason, the researchers propose, is that the cells bearing the type of receptor the avian virus is known to favor are clustered in the deepest branches of the human respiratory tract, keeping it from spreading by coughs and sneezes. Human flu viruses typically infect cells in the upper respiratory tract.

The avian virus would need to accumulate many mutations in its genetic material before it could become a pandemic strain, said Yoshihiro Kawaoka, a virologist at the University of Tokyo and the University of Wisconsin.

According to a University of Wisconsin news release approved by Dr. Kawaoka, "The finding suggests that scientists and public health agencies worldwide may have more time to prepare for an eventual pandemic."

Dr. Kawaoka's finding is published in today's issue of Nature, and a similar finding, by Thijs Kuiken and colleagues at the Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam, appears in this week's Science.

Flu experts already knew that people who contract the current avian flu virus, a type known as A(H5N1) or H5 for short, are infected in the lower lung.

Paul A. Offit, a virologist at the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, said the new reports helped explain why the H5 virus, though it can infect people, does not easily spread from one person to another.

Virologists agree that a flu pandemic will happen sooner or later as one of the 16 types of flu virus in the animal world, probably one that infects birds, will manage to switch hosts, and grow and spread in humans. But they differ over whether H5 is the likeliest candidate to make such a switch. Previous pandemics have been caused only by H1- (the 1918 pandemic), H2- (the 1957 Asian flu) or H3-type viruses (the Hong Kong flu of 1968).

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/23/science/23flu.html

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STUPID BOB
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Post by STUPID BOB » March 23rd, 2006, 10:05 am

[quote="firsty"]when i was kid i got bit by mosquitoes all the time and ran naked thru fields of corn and grass. now, my kids will get west nile and lyme disease.

So it was YOU!! Quit running through the fields nekkid, dude!':wink:'

In other news (BBC):

"The H5N1 strain of bird flu has spread across Europe, Africa and parts of Asia, has killed more than 100 people worldwide and infected about 180 since it re-emerged in 2003."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/4829858.stm

So it is a little bit more lethal than I previously posted. It isn't fear I'm selling here, just numbers.
Carpe Delirium

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