mnaz wrote:well said, eyelidnessness. I think there are some BIG OIL objectives as well.
I don't think oil is a particular focus in AfPak, but energy resources are, for sure. The TAPI pipeline is a major issue. Another major issue is mineral resources; Afghanistan has long been thought to have massive mineral deposits, and there was recently a discovery of huge bauxite deposits. The military commentary on this discovery was quite interesting, as they were quite excited at the prospect of investment, but very careful to say it's not clear what the impact of such investment will mean for Afghani society.
That said, I don't think resources were the driving force behind starting, or escalating, the AfPak war. They're more of a… bonus.
that, and strengthening our (incredibly corrupt) afghan puppet regime's tenous grip on power, for many geo- strategic reasons, not least, keeping pressure on iran (from both sides-- iraq on the other).
We have a winner! AfPak is basically a play for hegemonic leverage. Afghanistan itself isn't particularly interesting to the US, and Pakistan only because we've invested in their nuclear weapons capability as a counterbalance against India (and to a lesser extent, Iran).
There's a supreme irony here, in that Iran has been instrumental in both US success in Afghanistan and US success, as well as failure, in Iraq. They've played every side of both wars so well that they're ultimately going to be untouchable for the foreseeable future. Sure, the US has agents on the ground trying to destabilize the mullah regime, but ultimately that's the extent of what can be done.
speaking of iraq, are we going to keep up those payoffs that led to a decline in violence?
Almost certainly not directly, but we'll probably be continuing to send aid to Iraq for the rest of forever (until the country collapses under the weight of having a completely bullshit government with almost no backing from anyone) and it wouldn't surprise me to see them keep up the payoffs.
what if we don't?
We'll be watching Iraq fall apart.
within days of the troops leaving (find it hard to believe they're "all gone")
Despite the clever language, they've never claimed anything of the sort. They're ending "combat operations", but keeping a large deployment of "security" and "intelligence" and "advisory" forces (does this sound familiar?), as well as a large military-equipped force under State Department command, as well as a much larger (and increasing) private force under various auspices (including the former Blackwater).
attacks increasing on the iraqi puppet regime already. what if it escalates again? more troops?
More likely it'll be fought in "secret" (much like the wars in Laos and Cambodia) by the aforementioned "non-combat" forces, with plenty of information available but scant media coverage. With that said, another US escalation isn't inconceivable. It's just unlikely because of the unpopularity of that war.
I tell you what. you'd think this war would be unpopular after 9 years, the same old "war on terror" bullshit rhetoric, even from our man obama
I think that anyone who expected different from Obama wasn't listening to his platform. AfPak is his bread and butter. He was more aggressive, particularly on Pakistan, than even McCain (who had already ratcheted up
his aggressive tone to match that of Bush).
With that said, I think cracks in support for the war are showing. It's becoming a lot more visible, and with that comes growing resentment of the long war. But it may be years—as in, until someone who isn't an "historic" Democratic president is in office—before an antiwar movement worth speaking of is organized.
and absolutely no clear statement of vision as to what "victory" actually means, staring down yet another quagmire, but just get out there in cyberspace and try it. try to criticize this escalation and you're in for a fight, I guarantee it.
We must go to sites with totally different demographics. A lot of what I'm seeing is either outright opposition to the war, or opposition to the strategy. That doesn't mean there aren't people clamoring to support Obama, but for the most part they're doing it despite their feelings about his policies.
the taliban is so reviled (and if all the stories are true, rightly so), that most of us still want to continue to sacrifice our blood (and theirs, many-fold) and treasure to "win." that's what I'm hearing and seeing.
I don't think there is going to be, ultimately, the resolve to win. There just isn't a strategy for "victory" that Americans will stomach. Maybe I'm being naive. But I think we'll more likely see some kind of half-cocked withdrawal plan marketed as "victory".