elections in germany on sunday
Posted: September 16th, 2005, 10:52 am
on sunday, we'll go to the polls to elect a new/old government.
this year, it's stranger than ever.... the election campaign has turned into an almost american personality contest, and the outcome of the elections has never been so unclear and predictable at the same time.
there's a pretty apt article here:
http://service.spiegel.de/cache/interna ... 69,00.html
THE NEXT GERMAN GOVERNMENT
Who Wants to Play Politics with Angela Merkel?
By Michael Scott Moore in Berlin
With just three days to go before the election, 30 percent of all German voters are undecided. Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats no longer have a decisive lead, meaning anything can happen. But what will Germany's next government look like?
Now it's official. As the German election campaign hurtles toward its Sunday finish, polls are telling us exactly nothing.
Oh sure, it seems clear that Angela Merkel's conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU) will get the most votes. And we know that more political parties are poised to enter Germany's parliament, the Bundestag, than has been the case in decades. But the CDU, which in mid June appeared headed for an absolute majority, has fallen in the polls as their perennial foil, Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's center-left Social Democrats (SPD), has risen. The big question now is, with a coalition government -- a partnership formed between two parties to achieve a majority in Germany's parliament -- clearly in the cards, how might power be shared?
Merkel's response to that question, delivered on Monday night during a televised debate of major political party leaders, is "There will be no grand coalition." She was referring to the prospect of her party teaming up with the SPD to form a government built with two parties that generally exist to antagonize the other.
What does her statement really mean? That a grand coalition is closer to becoming reality now than it has been in 40 years.
It's a prospect that nobody in Germany is terribly happy about. Imagine a White House made up of Democrats and Republicans, or a Tory-Labour cabinet in London. German pundits call it an "elephant wedding," a marriage of the two big parties, and the last time it happened was from 1966 to 1969. One can argue that it wasn't perhaps as cumbersome as power-sharing in Washington would be, but it resulted in one of the more forgettable chancelleries in post-war Germany. Even most Germans wouldn't necessarily recognize Chancellor Kurt Georg Kiesinger.
But as Germany's political pundits are quick to point out, a grand coalition isn't the only threat. Indeed, watching commentators speculate about new coalitions is like watching a dance of colorful shapes in Fantasia. And with 30 percent of Germany's voters still undecided, the polls aren't much help.
DDP
Germany is facing a -- ahem -- rainbow of possibilties this election season.
Merkel, of course, wants a black (CDU) and yellow (which stands for the neo-liberal Free Democratic Party) coalition. That is, after all, what her CDU predecessor Helmut Kohl had to work with during his 16-year stint at the top. But with the FDP polling anemically of late and her own party at just over 40 percent, the two together no longer appear to be able to muster the needed 50 percent to form a coalition.
Color coding German style
How about "red-red-green"? That would involve Schröder's (reddish) SPD sharing power with their current partners, the Greens, and a hastily-assembled, deep-red party called the Left Party, made up of SPD malcontents and former eastern Communists. But Schröder has ruled out the possibility of working with the "other" reds and his Left Party arch-enemy. And former SPD leader -- Oskar Lafontaine has likewise said he would not form a coalition with his former party. Despite the rhetoric, however, the SPD and the post-communist Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS) -- which makes up a large chunk of the Left Party -- currently run the city-state of Berlin.
The most colorful idea is a so-called stoplight coalition, composed of the red SPD, the yellow FDP, and Joschka Fischer's Greens. With the CDU set to receive the most votes on Sunday, the formation of this coalition would -- as with the red-red-green coalition -- presuppose the SPD torpedoing a grand coalition. It is also one of the few possibilities that would keep Schröder in the chancellery. But even if stoplight coalitions have been welded together to run state governments in the past -- in both Bremen and Brandenburg in the early 1990s -- such a constellation would be difficult this time around. Green alpha-male Joschka Fischer and FDP head Guido Westerwelle are not exactly on friendly terms. Any coalition involving the two parties would likely be dependent on personnel changes at the top.
There is, of course, still a possibility that Angela and Guido muster enough support for the black-yellow dream team. And there's the possibility, as reported Thursday in the Leipziger Volkszeitung, that the CDU is considering -- should they not win the wished-for majority -- allowing coalition negotiations to fail, thus forcing yet another new election.
In other words, as mentioned, the pundits are busy.
If it sounds a bit chaotic, that's because it is. While Germany's parliamentary system is similar to those in Italy or Israel, it has -- since the war at least -- been remarkably stable. In large part, though, that stability has resulted from having relatively few parties as well as strict constitutional rules that set the bar high for dissolving parliament. The two major parties -- the center-left SPD and the center-right CDU -- have wielded power since 1949, with the FDP forming a coalition with first one and then the other of them. The Greens crashed the party in 1998 by entering the government with the SPD making it a four party system.
Too many parties for stability?
But now? "This year we have five parties" ready to enter parliament, says Uwe Wesel, a professor emeritus of German legal history at Berlin's Free University. "That's quite a few." Any one of them might share power because no elephant looks strong enough to govern alone.
That, though, isn't such a bad thing, say others. "Many people think our system would be a lot more stable if it were a two-party system, as in England," says Karlheinz Niclauss, author of "The Road to Basic Law: Establishing Democracy in Germany 1945-49." Niclauss points out that the Weimar parliament -- which governed Germany from 1919 until Hitler took over in 1933 -- was crippled by a pandemonium of small, uncompromising, basically undemocratic parties, like the Communists and the Nazis. "But at the moment all our parties stem from within the system, they believe in the constitution, and they're ready to compromise," he says. "So the government is fairly stable."
DPA
Chancellor Schröder has governed for seven years with the Greens. His reign is likely coming to an end.
And stability -- most Germans are convinced -- is better than chaos, even if nothing gets done. The sluggish grand-coalition years under George Kiesinger were also a period of fiery social change. Revolutionaries -- like the current Green Foreign Minister, Joschka Fischer -- were fighting riot cops in the streets in 1968, while the neo-Nazi NPD leaped the five-percent hurdle to win a small corner of seats in the Bundestag. Germany was in upheaval, and what looked like constipation on a federal level amounted to a sort of governmental pause while the people changed their minds. "Until the grand coalition in the '60s," said Wesel, "we had 17 or 18 years of CDU leadership. After that it was 14 years of SPD."
The same thing may be happening now. This weekend Angela Merkel might well make history by becoming the first woman in charge of the Federal Republic. But she may also have to govern with a coalition of political strangers, while dissatisfied Germans work out what to do with their elephantine welfare state.
this year, it's stranger than ever.... the election campaign has turned into an almost american personality contest, and the outcome of the elections has never been so unclear and predictable at the same time.
there's a pretty apt article here:
http://service.spiegel.de/cache/interna ... 69,00.html
THE NEXT GERMAN GOVERNMENT
Who Wants to Play Politics with Angela Merkel?
By Michael Scott Moore in Berlin
With just three days to go before the election, 30 percent of all German voters are undecided. Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats no longer have a decisive lead, meaning anything can happen. But what will Germany's next government look like?
Now it's official. As the German election campaign hurtles toward its Sunday finish, polls are telling us exactly nothing.
Oh sure, it seems clear that Angela Merkel's conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU) will get the most votes. And we know that more political parties are poised to enter Germany's parliament, the Bundestag, than has been the case in decades. But the CDU, which in mid June appeared headed for an absolute majority, has fallen in the polls as their perennial foil, Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's center-left Social Democrats (SPD), has risen. The big question now is, with a coalition government -- a partnership formed between two parties to achieve a majority in Germany's parliament -- clearly in the cards, how might power be shared?
Merkel's response to that question, delivered on Monday night during a televised debate of major political party leaders, is "There will be no grand coalition." She was referring to the prospect of her party teaming up with the SPD to form a government built with two parties that generally exist to antagonize the other.
What does her statement really mean? That a grand coalition is closer to becoming reality now than it has been in 40 years.
It's a prospect that nobody in Germany is terribly happy about. Imagine a White House made up of Democrats and Republicans, or a Tory-Labour cabinet in London. German pundits call it an "elephant wedding," a marriage of the two big parties, and the last time it happened was from 1966 to 1969. One can argue that it wasn't perhaps as cumbersome as power-sharing in Washington would be, but it resulted in one of the more forgettable chancelleries in post-war Germany. Even most Germans wouldn't necessarily recognize Chancellor Kurt Georg Kiesinger.
But as Germany's political pundits are quick to point out, a grand coalition isn't the only threat. Indeed, watching commentators speculate about new coalitions is like watching a dance of colorful shapes in Fantasia. And with 30 percent of Germany's voters still undecided, the polls aren't much help.
DDP
Germany is facing a -- ahem -- rainbow of possibilties this election season.
Merkel, of course, wants a black (CDU) and yellow (which stands for the neo-liberal Free Democratic Party) coalition. That is, after all, what her CDU predecessor Helmut Kohl had to work with during his 16-year stint at the top. But with the FDP polling anemically of late and her own party at just over 40 percent, the two together no longer appear to be able to muster the needed 50 percent to form a coalition.
Color coding German style
How about "red-red-green"? That would involve Schröder's (reddish) SPD sharing power with their current partners, the Greens, and a hastily-assembled, deep-red party called the Left Party, made up of SPD malcontents and former eastern Communists. But Schröder has ruled out the possibility of working with the "other" reds and his Left Party arch-enemy. And former SPD leader -- Oskar Lafontaine has likewise said he would not form a coalition with his former party. Despite the rhetoric, however, the SPD and the post-communist Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS) -- which makes up a large chunk of the Left Party -- currently run the city-state of Berlin.
The most colorful idea is a so-called stoplight coalition, composed of the red SPD, the yellow FDP, and Joschka Fischer's Greens. With the CDU set to receive the most votes on Sunday, the formation of this coalition would -- as with the red-red-green coalition -- presuppose the SPD torpedoing a grand coalition. It is also one of the few possibilities that would keep Schröder in the chancellery. But even if stoplight coalitions have been welded together to run state governments in the past -- in both Bremen and Brandenburg in the early 1990s -- such a constellation would be difficult this time around. Green alpha-male Joschka Fischer and FDP head Guido Westerwelle are not exactly on friendly terms. Any coalition involving the two parties would likely be dependent on personnel changes at the top.
There is, of course, still a possibility that Angela and Guido muster enough support for the black-yellow dream team. And there's the possibility, as reported Thursday in the Leipziger Volkszeitung, that the CDU is considering -- should they not win the wished-for majority -- allowing coalition negotiations to fail, thus forcing yet another new election.
In other words, as mentioned, the pundits are busy.
If it sounds a bit chaotic, that's because it is. While Germany's parliamentary system is similar to those in Italy or Israel, it has -- since the war at least -- been remarkably stable. In large part, though, that stability has resulted from having relatively few parties as well as strict constitutional rules that set the bar high for dissolving parliament. The two major parties -- the center-left SPD and the center-right CDU -- have wielded power since 1949, with the FDP forming a coalition with first one and then the other of them. The Greens crashed the party in 1998 by entering the government with the SPD making it a four party system.
Too many parties for stability?
But now? "This year we have five parties" ready to enter parliament, says Uwe Wesel, a professor emeritus of German legal history at Berlin's Free University. "That's quite a few." Any one of them might share power because no elephant looks strong enough to govern alone.
That, though, isn't such a bad thing, say others. "Many people think our system would be a lot more stable if it were a two-party system, as in England," says Karlheinz Niclauss, author of "The Road to Basic Law: Establishing Democracy in Germany 1945-49." Niclauss points out that the Weimar parliament -- which governed Germany from 1919 until Hitler took over in 1933 -- was crippled by a pandemonium of small, uncompromising, basically undemocratic parties, like the Communists and the Nazis. "But at the moment all our parties stem from within the system, they believe in the constitution, and they're ready to compromise," he says. "So the government is fairly stable."
DPA
Chancellor Schröder has governed for seven years with the Greens. His reign is likely coming to an end.
And stability -- most Germans are convinced -- is better than chaos, even if nothing gets done. The sluggish grand-coalition years under George Kiesinger were also a period of fiery social change. Revolutionaries -- like the current Green Foreign Minister, Joschka Fischer -- were fighting riot cops in the streets in 1968, while the neo-Nazi NPD leaped the five-percent hurdle to win a small corner of seats in the Bundestag. Germany was in upheaval, and what looked like constipation on a federal level amounted to a sort of governmental pause while the people changed their minds. "Until the grand coalition in the '60s," said Wesel, "we had 17 or 18 years of CDU leadership. After that it was 14 years of SPD."
The same thing may be happening now. This weekend Angela Merkel might well make history by becoming the first woman in charge of the Federal Republic. But she may also have to govern with a coalition of political strangers, while dissatisfied Germans work out what to do with their elephantine welfare state.