elections in germany on sunday

[stilltrucking]

Merkel gets 35% and claims a mandate
Schroeder gets 34% and claims a clear affirmation
Every other word I heard on NPR this morning was stability

[panta rhei]

here's a riddle for you:

take five political parties, as there are:

a) SPD (social democratic party; the reds; center-left)
b) CDU (christian democratic party (conservative); the blacks; center-right)
c) Green Party (ecological/social party; the greens)
d) Left Party ( SPD defectors together with PDS (Party of democratic socialism), the successor of the former east german stalinist party; the deep-reds; left)
e) FDP (liberal democratic party; the yellow ones; center-right somehow, but hard to pinpoint)

then take an election - and the following voting results:

a) red SPD: 34,3%
b) black CDU: 35,2%
c) Green Party: 8,1%
d) deep-red Left Party: 8,7%
e) yellow FDP. 9,8%
f) other parties: 3,9%

after that, consider the fact that a government must consist of a party or a coalition of parties that together have a sum of more than 50% of the votes.

your task:
to do the maths and put together a government capable of obtaining a majority; use a), b), c), d) and e). use the above election results.

also take into account the following facts:
1) - e) will under no circumstance form a coalition with a) and c)
2) - d) will neither work with a), b), c), e)
3) - no one will cooperate with d)
4) - the views and concepts of b) and c) have no intersections
5) - a) would only form a coalition with b) if a) provides the chancellor ("you can't ignore 51,1% for the parties left from the center!")
6) - b) would only form a coalition with a) if b) provides the chancellor ("you can't ignore that we have 0,9% more votes than you have!")
7) -none of the parties of f) have enough votes to be part of the federal diet at all

GOOD LUCK!
let me know about the result.

[mtmynd]

Panta - well described dilemma. Perhaps you should try to organize this problem into a working solution..? Democracies are not braced for these intrusions that further divide a Nation. U.S. is split between only two (theoretically), but to have five is indeed problematic.

From this side it would seem favorable to take (a) and (b), seeing as they are running neck to neck, and call for a re-election without the others, i.e., (c), (d) or (e)... and definitely (f). But I don't know how your style of government works.. is that a viable alternative?

[stilltrucking]

B + E + C

Even though C has no intersection with B they might get enough out of it to find some common ground if B could sweeten the deal with environmental or social concessions.

Question
What happens if nothing happens? I mean if a and b, or and b, c, and e, work it out. Will there be another election? Our supreme court would be happy to decide the matter for you if you don't mind Bush being your chancellor

[panta rhei]

cecil - i'm not sure if a re-election between a) and b) could be a possibility. can't really imagine that this could be possible... to practically 'force' people to only decide between two alternatives, while almost as many people (a third of the voters) as have voted for a) or b) have voted for different options? hm...

still-t - b+c+e is highly problematic.
remember: b) and c) are practically direct opposites in almost everything, especially in environmental and peace questions... and e) has proclaimed loudly that they would neither work with a) nor c)!

however, this alternative is talked about, of course, as there are talks about nearly every option.

the option of b+c+e is called the "jamaica coalition" (due to the three parties' colours black-green-yellow, the national colors of the caribbean country). it would mean the greens as a counterbalance against the two pals black and yellow, if the the yellows took back their statement that they under no circumstance would cooperate with the greens, and if they could find an agreement about how to recast the important positions.

musing about the jamaica coalition, joschka fischer (the green foreign minister) already ironically imagined a happy crowd of government members with dreadlocks and casual joints dangling from their lips (his words)....

it's what you might call a joint-venture....

the colorful alliance would undoubtedly have charm, but not much chance of realizing their policies.

there is also the option of the so-called traffic light coalition (red-green-yellow) between the a) , c) and e). it could have a clear majority in parliament, mathematically speaking, but it wouldn't be stable.... plus, as mentioned before, e) deosn't want to work with a) and c), and c) sees no possibility to cooperate with e).

what happens if nothing happens?
good question.

i think something has to happen.... but the outcome is very unclear...